对流尺度集合预报对川渝地区降水的预报性能分析

叶茂, 吴钲, 高松, 陈良吕, 游婷

Analysis on precipitation forecast performance of convective-scale ensemble system in Sichuan-Chongqing region

YE Mao, WU Zheng, GAO Song, CHEN Lianglü, YOU Ting

表1 集合预报系统各成员扰动方案

Tab.1 Perturbation scheme for each member of the ensemble prediction system

成员 初值 侧边界 微物理过程 边界层方案 积云参数化 m00 GFS初值 GFS预报 Thompson MYJ BMJ m01 GEFS成员初值 GEFS成员预报 WSM6 MYNN KF m02 GEFS成员初值 GEFS成员预报 Morrison YSU KF m03 GEFS成员初值 GEFS成员预报 Thompson YSU G3 m04 GEFS成员初值 GEFS成员预报 WSM6 MYJ BMJ m05 GEFS成员初值 GEFS成员预报 Morrison MYNN KF m06 GEFS成员初值 GEFS成员预报 Thompson MYNN BMJ m07 GEFS成员初值 GEFS成员预报 WSM6 YSU G3 m08 GEFS成员初值 GEFS成员预报 Morrison MYJ BMJ m09 GEFS成员初值 GEFS成员预报 Thompson MYJ KF m10 GEFS成员初值 GEFS成员预报 Morrison YSU G3