台风“摩羯”路径转折预报和诊断分析
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于慧珍 1,2( ), 马艳 1,2( ), 韩旭卿 3, 时晓曚 1,2
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Forecast and diagnosis analysis of the turning of Typhoon Yagi track
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YU Huizhen 1,2( ), MA Yan 1,2( ), HAN Xuqing 3, SHI Xiaomeng 1,2
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图5. 2018年8月12日08:00起报的12日20:00(a),13日20:00(b)和14日08:00(c)5860 gpm位势高度的集合预报结果(黑色等值线为各成员预报结果,绿色等值线为集合平均)及实况(红色等值线) (红色十字代表相应时刻台风的实况位置)
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Fig.5. The ECMWF ensemble forecast result (the black isolines for each member forecast result, green isoline for ensemble mean) of geopotential height of 5860 gpm at 20:00 BST 12 (a), 20:00 BST 13 (b) and 08:00 BST 14 (c) forecasted initiated from 08: 00 BST 12 August 2018 and observation (red isoline) (The red cross denotes the observed typhoon location at the corresponding time)
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