基于CMA-MESO的分级短时强降水概率预报方法研究

钟敏, 肖安, 许冠宇

Study on probability forecast method about graded short-term heavy rain based on CMA-MESO

ZHONG Min, XIAO An, XU Guanyu

图4 I级概率预报产品20 mm·h-1及以上短时强降水与CMA-MESO模式预报的对应时次10 mm·h-1及以上短时强降水的命中率(a)、空报率(b)及TS评分(c)

Fig.4 The hit rate (a)， false alarm rate (b) and TS score (c) of the grade I probability product about short-term heavy precipitation with rainfall intensity of 20 mm·h-1 and above and corresponding time short-term heavy precipitation with rainfall intensity of 10 mm·h-1 and above predicted by the CMA-MESO model