基于CMA-MESO的分级短时强降水概率预报方法研究
钟敏, 肖安, 许冠宇

Study on probability forecast method about graded short-term heavy rain based on CMA-MESO
ZHONG Min, XIAO An, XU Guanyu
图3 2020年7月5日(a、b)、7日(c、d)及6月27日(e、f)、8月8日(g、h)08:00起报的16 h时效I级(a)、20 h时效II级(c)、10 h时效III级(e)、14 h时效IV级(g)短时强降水概率预报产品(彩色填色区,单位:%)与CMA-MESO模式预报的对应时次1 h降水量(b, d, f, h,彩色填色区,单位:mm)
(左图从上到下黑色圆点分别为20 mm·h-1及以上、30 mm·h-1及以上、50 mm·h-1及以上、80 mm·h-1及以上短时强降水实况)
Fig.3 The probability prediction products (color shaded areas, Unit: %) about short-term heavy precipitation with grade I for 16 h prediction time (a), with grade II for 20 h prediction time (c), with grade III for 10 h prediction time (e), with grade IV for 14 h prediction time (g) forecasted from 08:00 BST on July 5 (a, b) and 7 (c, d), June 27 (e, f) and August 8 (g, h) in 2020 and 1 h precipitation forecasted by the CMA-MESO model at corresponding time (b, d, f, h, color shaded areas, Unit: mm)
(The black dots in the left figures from top to bottom are observed precipitation with rainfall intensity of 20 mm·h-1 and above, 30 mm·h-1 and above, 50 mm·h-1 and above, 80 mm·h-1 and above, respectively)