基于CMA-MESO的分级短时强降水概率预报方法研究
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钟敏, 肖安, 许冠宇
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Study on probability forecast method about graded short-term heavy rain based on CMA-MESO
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ZHONG Min, XIAO An, XU Guanyu
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表5 不同等级短时强降水概率预报产品的不同概率阈值预报检验
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Tab.5 The forecast test of different probability thresholds of probability prediction products about short-term heavy precipitation with different grades
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| 概率阈值/% | I级 | Ⅱ级 | Ⅲ级 | IV级 | | HR/% | FR/% | TS | HR/% | FR/% | TS | HR/% | FR/% | TS | HR/% | FR/% | TS | | 60 | 55.7 | 83.6 | 0.145 | 54.6 | 91.4 | 0.080 | 51.9 | 97.4 | 0.026 | 50.4 | 99.8 | 0.002 | | 65 | 40.7 | 81.8 | 0.144 | 39.1 | 90.3 | 0.083 | 35.0 | 97.1 | 0.027 | 34.1 | 99.7 | 0.002 | | 70 | 25.8 | 79.8 | 0.128 | 24.7 | 88.9 | 0.083 | 21.7 | 96.7 | 0.030 | 22.4 | 99.7 | 0.003 | | 75 | 13.0 | 78.0 | 0.089 | 12.4 | 87.5 | 0.066 | 10.8 | 96.1 | 0.029 | 12.3 | 99.6 | 0.004 | | 80 | 5.1 | 76.8 | 0.043 | 5.1 | 85.8 | 0.039 | 4.8 | 95.1 | 0.025 | 5.8 | 99.4 | 0.005 |
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