基于CMA-MESO的分级短时强降水概率预报方法研究
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钟敏, 肖安, 许冠宇
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Study on probability forecast method about graded short-term heavy rain based on CMA-MESO
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ZHONG Min, XIAO An, XU Guanyu
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表3 不同等级短时强降水样本动力条件物理量百分位统计
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Tab.3 Percentile statistics of physical quantities about dynamic condition during short-term heavy precipitation samples with different grades
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| 物理量 | 百分位 | I级 | Ⅱ级 | Ⅲ级 | IV级 | | Div850/(10-5s-1) | 75% | 0.95 | 0.35 | -0.43 | -0.90 | | 50% | -1.17 | -1.51 | -2.05 | -2.11 | | 25% | -3.71 | -3.88 | -4.14 | -4.32 | | Div925/(10-5s-1) | 75% | 0.72 | 0.08 | -0.92 | -1.67 | | 50% | -1.79 | -2.22 | -3.29 | -4.09 | | 25% | -5.17 | -5.58 | -6.36 | -7.50 | Divq850/
(10-8g·cm-2·hPa-1·s-1) | 75% | 3.78 | 0.12 | -4.03 | -6.89 | | 50% | -11.70 | -16.90 | -21.51 | -26.94 | | 25% | -49.37 | -54.03 | -54.76 | -64.70 | Divq925/
(10-8g·cm-2·hPa-1·s-1) | 75% | 2.20 | -1.70 | -6.95 | -9.55 | | 50% | -16.59 | -25.19 | -39.51 | -42.59 | | 25% | -68.42 | -83.07 | -95.62 | -108.12 | | V700/(m·s-1) | 75% | 6.58 | 6.30 | 6.51 | 6.09 | | 50% | 4.19 | 3.94 | 3.64 | 3.24 | | 25% | 2.01 | 1.98 | 1.81 | 1.56 | | V850/(m·s-1) | 75% | 5.94 | 5.87 | 5.39 | 6.07 | | 50% | 3.20 | 3.01 | 2.83 | 2.83 | | 25% | 0.91 | 0.86 | 0.69 | 0.48 | | w700/(10-2m·s-1) | 75% | 6.76 | 6.35 | 5.65 | 5.11 | | 50% | 1.25 | 1.08 | 0.84 | 0.92 | | 25% | -1.54 | -1.45 | -1.25 | -0.55 |
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