基于CMA-MESO的分级短时强降水概率预报方法研究
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钟敏, 肖安, 许冠宇
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Study on probability forecast method about graded short-term heavy rain based on CMA-MESO
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ZHONG Min, XIAO An, XU Guanyu
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表2 不同等级短时强降水样本不稳定条件物理量百分位统计
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Tab.2 Percentile statistics of physical quantities about unstable condition during short-term heavy precipitation samples with different grades
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| 物理量 | 百分位 | I级 | Ⅱ级 | Ⅲ级 | IV级 | | BLI/℃ | 75% | -1.01 | -1.15 | -1.30 | -1.66 | | 50% | -2.19 | -2.63 | -2.53 | -2.75 | | 25% | -3.49 | -3.65 | -3.67 | -3.90 | CAPE/
(J·kg-1) | 75% | 1764 | 1824 | 1939 | 2008 | | 50% | 893 | 1047 | 1181 | 1082 | | 25% | 248 | 358 | 487 | 401 | | ΔT850-500/℃ | 75% | 23.19 | 23.37 | 23.41 | 24.51 | | 50% | 22.15 | 22.30 | 22.42 | 23.52 | | 25% | 21.32 | 21.47 | 21.61 | 22.83 | | K指数/℃ | 75% | 38.27 | 38.30 | 39.08 | 39.09 | | 50% | 37.42 | 37.48 | 38.23 | 38.00 | | 25% | 36.12 | 36.15 | 37.00 | 36.00 |
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