基于CMA-MESO的分级短时强降水概率预报方法研究
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钟敏, 肖安, 许冠宇
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Study on probability forecast method about graded short-term heavy rain based on CMA-MESO
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ZHONG Min, XIAO An, XU Guanyu
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表1 不同等级短时强降水样本水汽及层结特征物理量百分位统计
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Tab.1 Percentile statistics of physical quantities about water vapor and stratification characteristic during short-term heavy precipitation samples with different grades
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| 物理量 | 百分位 | I级 | Ⅱ级 | Ⅲ级 | IV级 | | Td700/℃ | 75% | 11.31 | 11.29 | 11.26 | 10.91 | | 50% | 10.20 | 10.15 | 9.99 | 9.72 | | 25% | 8.83 | 8.65 | 8.50 | 7.44 | | Td850/℃ | 75% | 19.73 | 19.82 | 19.90 | 19.91 | | 50% | 18.90 | 19.00 | 19.11 | 18.99 | | 25% | 18.06 | 18.19 | 18.33 | 18.23 | | Td925/℃ | 75% | 22.95 | 23.05 | 23.05 | 23.12 | | 50% | 22.02 | 22.15 | 22.31 | 22.21 | | 25% | 21.08 | 21.26 | 21.49 | 21.32 | | RH500/% | 75% | 93.62 | 92.57 | 91.27 | 93.05 | | 50% | 83.00 | 80.42 | 79.00 | 79.51 | | 25% | 67.71 | 65.38 | 65.45 | 65.00 | | RH700/% | 75% | 95.00 | 94.50 | 93.91 | 93.07 | | 50% | 89.00 | 88.00 | 87.67 | 84.22 | | 25% | 80.53 | 79.31 | 79.67 | 71.96 | | RH850/% | 75% | 97.47 | 97.23 | 97.41 | 95.92 | | 50% | 93.54 | 93.00 | 93.00 | 90.13 | | 25% | 87.94 | 87.18 | 87.08 | 84.60 | | RH925/% | 75% | 95.74 | 95.31 | 95.00 | 93.56 | | 50% | 90.00 | 89.36 | 89.71 | 88.00 | | 25% | 82.38 | 82.00 | 81.58 | 80.68 |
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