全球和区域数值模式在甘肃2020年汛期降水预报中的检验评估
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陈晓燕, 孔祥伟, 彭筱, 刘新伟, 吴晶, 任淑媛
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Verification and assessment of precipitation forecast based on global and regional numerical models in Gansu in flood season of 2020
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CHEN Xiaoyan, KONG Xiangwei, PENG Xiao, LIU Xinwei, WU Jing, REN Shuyuan
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表3 全球模式和区域模式对2020年汛期3次低槽型降水过程24 h累计降水预报和观测值组成的对象簇属性值
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Tab.3 The attribute values of matching objects of 24 h accumulated rainfall forecast based on global and regional models and observations for 3 low-trough precipitation processes in flood season of 2020
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不同等级 降水 | 模式 | 面积比 | 质心距离/ km | 轴角差/ (°) | 50%分位强度 比率 | 90%分位强度 比率 | 中雨 | ECMWF | 1.35 | 36.79 | 9.62 | 0.91 | 0.98* | GRAPES_GFS | 1.68 | 70.00 | 16.17 | 0.96 | 1.06 | NCEP_GFS | 1.07* | 38.61 | 24.78 | 0.87 | 0.88 | SMS-WARMS | 1.32 | 19.10* | 10.52 | 1.15 | 1.52 | GRAPES_3 km | 1.83 | 49.10 | 16.39 | 1.17 | 1.39 | GRAPES_LZ10 km | 1.42 | 34.71 | 9.42* | 1.14 | 1.21 | GRAPES_LZ3 km | 1.20 | 58.00 | 14.83 | 0.99* | 1.07 | 大雨 | ECMWF | 1.00* | 23.77* | 11.93* | 0.91 | 0.75 | GRAPES_GFS | 1.36 | 84.56 | 26.49 | 0.98 | 0.78 | NCEP_GFS | 0.51 | 57.69 | 14.11 | 0.90 | 0.65 | SMS-WARMS | 2.76 | 27.23 | 12.35 | 1.12 | 1.25 | GRAPES_3 km | 3.78 | 49.34 | 12.33 | 1.04 | 1.07 | GRAPES_LZ10 km | 2.22 | 32.79 | 12.69 | 1.02 | 1.00* | GRAPES_LZ3 km | 1.60 | 52.65 | 6.28 | 0.99* | 0.93 | 暴雨 | ECMWF | 0.15 | 8.84* | 44.98 | 1.04 | 0.98* | GRAPES_GFS | — | — | — | — | — | NCEP_GFS | — | — | — | — | — | SMS-WARMS | 7.34 | 27.82 | 17.3 | 1.02* | 1.15 | GRAPES_3 km | 4.73 | 26.91 | 6.03 | 0.98 | 1.07 | GRAPES_LZ10 km | 3.29 | 55.93 | 5.43* | 0.97 | 0.88 | GRAPES_LZ3 km | 0.90* | 45.26 | 29.34 | 0.85 | 0.84 | 注: *表示各属性表现最优模式,“—”表示模式未预报出该量级降水。
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