全球和区域数值模式在甘肃2020年汛期降水预报中的检验评估
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陈晓燕, 孔祥伟, 彭筱, 刘新伟, 吴晶, 任淑媛
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Verification and assessment of precipitation forecast based on global and regional numerical models in Gansu in flood season of 2020
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CHEN Xiaoyan, KONG Xiangwei, PENG Xiao, LIU Xinwei, WU Jing, REN Shuyuan
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表2 全球模式和区域模式对2020年汛期4次副高边缘型降水过程的24 h累计降水预报和观测值组成的对象簇属性值
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Tab.2 The attribute values of matching objects of 24 h accumulated rainfall prediction based on global and regional models and observations for 4 sub-high marginal precipitation processes in flood season of 2020
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不同等级 降水 | 模式 | 面积比 | 质心距离/ km | 轴角差/ (°) | 50%分位强度 比率 | 90%分位强度 比率 | 中雨 | ECMWF | 1.46 | 22.84 | 8.87 | 0.90 | 1.05* | GRAPES_GFS | 1.67 | 29.40 | 6.99* | 0.93 | 0.74 | NCEP_GFS | 1.43 | 21.45 | 8.88 | 0.81 | 0.80 | SMS-WARMS | 1.40 | 26.47 | 10.62 | 1.13 | 1.57 | GRAPES_3 km | 1.23 | 30.35 | 11.47 | 1.06 | 1.17 | GRAPES_LZ10 km | 1.31 | 10.97* | 8.53 | 1.14 | 1.17 | GRAPES_LZ3 km | 1.18* | 25.85 | 11.14 | 1.01* | 1.08 | 大雨 | ECMWF | 1.30 | 16.16 | 5.92 | 1.11 | 1.34 | GRAPES_GFS | 1.39 | 24.77 | 29.19 | 0.86 | 0.67 | NCEP_GFS | 1.07* | 26.00 | 11.56 | 0.96 | 0.90 | SMS-WARMS | 1.83 | 12.02* | 5.11* | 1.26 | 1.60 | GRAPES_3 km | 1.48 | 23.10 | 11.25 | 1.08 | 1.13 | GRAPES_LZ10 km | 1.69 | 14.92 | 6.20 | 1.09 | 1.07 | GRAPES_LZ3 km | 1.29 | 28.34 | 21.87 | 1.03* | 1.03* | 暴雨 | ECMWF | 1.75 | 21.91 | 31.30 | 1.06 | 1.18 | GRAPES_GFS | 3.80 | 14.40* | 51.70 | 0.96 | 0.84 | NCEP_GFS | 0.79* | 16.78 | 36.50 | 1.04 | 0.93 | SMS-WARMS | 4.16 | 29.63 | 22.59* | 1.17 | 1.42 | GRAPES_3 km | 4.45 | 33.35 | 52.60 | 1.03* | 1.06* | GRAPES_LZ10 km | 5.54 | 36.03 | 33.00 | 1.10 | 1.12 | GRAPES_LZ3 km | 48.00 | 36.47 | 52.00 | 1.11 | 1.15 | 大暴雨 | ECMWF | 2.31 | 16.32 | 32.58* | 1.04* | 1.15 | GRAPES_GFS | — | — | — | — | — | NCEP_GFS | 1.51* | 4.72* | 58.12 | 0.84 | 0.68 | SMS-WARMS | 6.85 | 24.56 | 46.52 | 1.07 | 1.08* | GRAPES_3 km | 2.44 | 16.35 | 40.73 | 0.93 | 0.93 | GRAPES_LZ10 km | — | — | — | — | — | GRAPES_LZ3 km | 0.07 | 7.05 | 56.03 | 0.89 | 0.68 |
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