不同舒适度指数在最大电力负荷预测中的应用
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贺莉微, 任永建, 夏青
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Application of different comfort indexes in maximum electric power load forecasting
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HE Liwei, REN Yongjian, XIA Qing
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表3 2019年6—8月湖北不同地区日最大电力负荷预测值的相对误差绝对值 单位:%
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Tab.3 The absolute relative error (ARE) of forecast values of daily maximum power load in different areas of Hubei from June to August 2019
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| 地区 | 舒适度
指数 | ARE<3%的占比 | | ARE<5%的占比 | | 最大ARE | | ARE的平均值 | 多元
回归 | BP神经
网络 | 多元
回归 | BP神经
网络 | 多元
回归 | BP神经
网络 | 多元
回归 | BP神经
网络 | | 荆州 | I | 38.0 | 32.6 | | 55.4 | 58.7 | | 26.9 | 24.7 | | 5.8 | 5.6 | | ET | 38.0 | 35.9 | | 54.3 | 58.7 | | 26.9 | 20.6 | | 5.8 | 5.4 | | Te | 38.0 | 44.6 | | 60.9 | 62.0 | | 27.4 | 27.1 | | 5.5 | 5.3 | | MSLI | 38.0 | 39.1 | | 54.3 | 64.1 | | 27.5 | 27.5 | | 5.8 | 5.4 | | 荆门 | I | 35.9 | 40.2 | | 53.3 | 60.9 | | 25.5 | 26.0 | | 5.0 | 4.5 | | ET | 37.0 | 52.2 | | 53.3 | 76.1 | | 25.5 | 26.7 | | 5.0 | 3.8 | | Te | 37.0 | 38.0 | | 56.5 | 58.7 | | 25.9 | 26.1 | | 4.8 | 4.9 | | MSLI | 34.8 | 47.8 | | 53.3 | 73.9 | | 25.4 | 26.5 | | 5.0 | 4.0 | | 宜昌 | I | 57.6 | 57.6 | | 79.3 | 80.4 | | 16.1 | 13.8 | | 3.2 | 3.2 | | ET | 55.4 | 54.3 | | 79.3 | 81.5 | | 16.3 | 16.5 | | 3.2 | 3.3 | | Te | 54.3 | 56.5 | | 79.3 | 79.3 | | 15.7 | 15.0 | | 3.2 | 3.1 | | MSLI | 56.5 | 56.5 | | 79.3 | 79.3 | | 16.0 | 15.6 | | 3.2 | 3.1 | | 咸宁 | I | 43.5 | 39.1 | | 70.7 | 65.2 | | 17.6 | 17.2 | | 4.1 | 4.1 | | ET | 42.4 | 43.5 | | 70.7 | 66.3 | | 17.8 | 15.8 | | 4.1 | 3.9 | | Te | 42.4 | 31.5 | | 69.6 | 60.9 | | 16.9 | 15.7 | | 4.1 | 4.6 | | MSLI | 42.4 | 41.3 | | 69.6 | 68.5 | | 17.2 | 17.6 | | 4.1 | 4.1 | | 随州 | I | 28.3 | 32.6 | | 45.7 | 51.1 | | 18.7 | 19.1 | | 6.4 | 5.9 | | ET | 28.3 | 33.7 | | 44.6 | 52.2 | | 19.0 | 19.9 | | 6.4 | 5.9 | | Te | 23.9 | 28.3 | | 47.8 | 50.0 | | 17.9 | 17.5 | | 6.4 | 6.0 | | MSLI | 27.2 | 29.3 | | 46.7 | 50.0 | | 18.9 | 19.0 | | 6.4 | 5.8 |
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