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    Journal of Arid Meteorology    2021, 39 (06): 871-.  
    Abstract12)      PDF (1907KB)(41)       Save
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    Journal of Arid Meteorology    2021, 39 (06): 872-.  
    Abstract12)      PDF (293KB)(40)       Save
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    Journal of Arid Meteorology    2021, 39 (06): 1039-.  
    Abstract25)      PDF (262KB)(44)       Save
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    Journal of Arid Meteorology    2021, 39 (06): 1040-.  
    Abstract13)      PDF (513KB)(34)       Save
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    Journal of Arid Meteorology    2021, 39 (06): 1049-.  
    Abstract9)      PDF (139KB)(33)       Save
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    Journal of Arid Meteorology    2021, 39 (5): 715-.  
    Abstract26)      PDF (1003KB)(110)       Save
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    Journal of Arid Meteorology    2021, 39 (5): 716-.  
    Abstract19)      PDF (295KB)(125)       Save
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    Journal of Arid Meteorology    2021, 39 (5): 871-.  
    Abstract45)      PDF (254KB)(123)    PDF(mobile) (254KB)(0)    Save
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    Journal of Arid Meteorology    2021, 39 (5): 872-.  
    Abstract73)      PDF (245KB)(141)       Save
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     From drought disaster towards drought disaster chain: state of art and challenges
    ZHANG Xiang, WEI Yanfang, LI Siyu, LIANG Da
    Journal of Arid Meteorology    0, (): 873-883.  
    Abstract0)      PDF (1581KB)(16)       Save
    The phenomenon of drought disaster chain caused by drought disaster and its secondary disasters has a great impact on natural environment, society, economy and so on. In order to review the current research of drought disaster chain, different definitions of drought disaster chain and its two development stages have been retrospected. Then the main contents of drought disaster chain has been summarized, including the classification of drought disaster chain, evolution mechanism and control measures. Moreover, the main research methods involved in the current research have also been reviewed, including qualitative analysis, correlation analysis, probability model based method, complex network based method, and so on. From the goal of building systematic disaster prevention and mitigation, the problems existing in the current research were finally identified. The toplevel research design and quantitative results are still needed. In the future, with the support of multidisciplinary knowledge, we should establish the chain catastrophe theory and put forward a series of quantitative methods. The research of this paper will be helpful to systematically understand the current progress, key points and difficulties in drought disaster chain studies, and also provide some references for future research.
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    Journal of Arid Meteorology    2021, 39 (5): 873-.  
    Abstract91)      PDF (271KB)(169)       Save
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    Journal of Arid Meteorology    2021, 39 (5): 874-.  
    Abstract31)      PDF (263KB)(106)       Save
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    Journal of Arid Meteorology    2021, 39 (5): 875-.  
    Abstract66)      PDF (259KB)(140)       Save
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    Journal of Arid Meteorology    2021, 39 (5): 876-.  
    Abstract10)      PDF (139KB)(98)       Save
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    Journal of Arid Meteorology    2021, 39 (4): 0-.  
    Abstract54)      PDF (53KB)(94)       Save
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    Journal of Arid Meteorology    2021, 39 (4): 0-.  
    Abstract17)      PDF (138KB)(72)       Save
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    Journal of Arid Meteorology    2021, 39 (4): 540-.  
    Abstract41)      PDF (291KB)(109)       Save
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    Cause Analysis on Severe Dust Storm in Northern China on 15 March 2021
    DUAN Bolong, LIU Xinwei, GUO Runxia, SONG Qiang, DI Xiaohong, DUAN Mingkeng
    Journal of Arid Meteorology    2021, 39 (4): 541-553.  
    Abstract214)      PDF (14316KB)(378)       Save
    Based on conventional meteorological observation data, FY4A satellite data, vegetation cover data and reanalysis data, the formation mechanism, transmission characteristics and influencing factors of a largescale severe dust storm occurring from March 14 to 18, 2021 in northern China were analyzed. The results are as follows: (1) Drought, high  temperature, less rainfall and low vegetation coverage in the earlier period in most parts of northern China provided a good sand source condition for occurrence of the strong sand dust storm weather. (2) The dust weather was caused by the strong development of Mongolia cyclone and the combined action of cold high pressure behind it. (3) The dust weather process was divided into two stages. At the first stage it was caused by the strong winds passing behind the ground cold front, which mainly occurred in North China and Northeast China. At the second stage it was caused by the southward diffusion of highaltitude dust that did not dissipate at the early stage and the backflow of east wind, which mainly occurred in Northwestern China. (4) The analysis of physical quantities such as horizontal helicity, the mixing layer height and vertical velocity showed that the dust emission conditions were insufficient in most areas of China, so the sand dust weather was mainly affected by the upstream sand dust transportation. For the eastern region of China, the contribution of dust storm was mainly from the southern part of Mongolia. While in Northwest China it was mainly contributed by Mongolia and its own dust.

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    Variation Characteristics of Precipitation Structure During Flood Season in Hunan Province
    JIANG Yuanhua, ZENG Xianghong, DUAN Lijie, TANG Yihao, WU Hao
    Journal of Arid Meteorology    2021, 39 (4): 554-562.  
    Abstract143)      PDF (6835KB)(215)       Save
    Based on hourly precipitation data from 96 meteorological stations during the flood season from 1980 to 2018 in Hunan Province, the occurrence frequency and contribution rate to the total precipitation amount were used as important indicators, and the spatialtemporal evolution characteristics of precipitation structure in Hunan Province during the flood season were analyzed. The results are as follows: (1) The occurrence frequency of rainfall events decreased by power function with increasing durations, while its contribution rate to the total precipitation amount of rainfall events increased linearly with increasing duration. The occurrence frequency of short duration rainfall event was high, while its contribution rate to the total precipitation amount was low. The occurrence frequency of long duration rainfall event was low, but contribution rate to the total precipitation amount was high and long duration rainfall event was the main body of precipitation in flood seasons. Both the occurrence frequency and contribution rate to the total precipitation amount of short duration rainfall events  were higher in southern Hunan than in northern Hunan, while the occurrence frequency and contribution rate to the total precipitation amount of long duration rainfall events were higher in northern Hunan than in southern Hunan. (2) In the past 10 years, both the occurrence frequency and contribution rate to the total precipitation amount of short duration rainfall events increased linearly, while the occurrence frequency and contribution rate to the total precipitation amount of long duration rainfall events decreased linearly. (3) Occurrence frequency of all rainfall events decreased by power function with increasing precipitation levels, while contribution rate to the total precipitation amount increased linearly with increasing precipitation levels. Although the occurrence frequency of torrential rainfall event was low, while it was the main contributor to precipitation during the flood season. The occurrence frequency and contribution rate to the total precipitation amount of light to moderate rainfall events were generally higher in southern Hunan than in northern Hunan, while the occurrence frequency and contribution rate to the total precipitation amount of heavy to torrential rainfall events were higher in northern Hunan than in southern Hunan.  (4) The interannual variation of occurrence frequency of light to heavy rainfall events was not significant, but the occurrence frequency of the torrential rain event increased significantly, while the interannual variation of contribution rate to the total precipitation amount of light rainfall events was not significant, but for moderate rain to heavy rainfall event it showed a significant downward trend, and contribution rate to the total precipitation amount of torrential rainfall events showed a significant upward trend.
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    Thresholds Determination and Characteristics Analysis of Short-time Heavy Rainfall in the Northeast Side of Qinghai Tibet Plateau
    YANG Zhenxin, QI Ping, SUN Lei, CUI Xiaoping, ZHAO Yuelan
    Journal of Arid Meteorology    2021, 39 (4): 563-568.  
    Abstract81)      PDF (972KB)(178)       Save
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    Cloud Water Resources Assessment in Qinghai Province Based on ERA-Interim Reanalysis Data
    ZHANG Haihong, SHI Mingming WU Hao, QI Donglin, QUAN Chen
    Journal of Arid Meteorology    2021, 39 (4): 569-576.  
    Abstract81)      PDF (7151KB)(145)       Save
    Based on ERAinterim reanalysis data from 2009 to 2018, the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of cloud liquid water content and cloud ice water content in Qinghai were analyzed. The results show that both cloud liquid water content and cloud ice water content increased from northwest to southeast. Cloud water resources were concentrated in the southern part of Yushu, southeastern part of Guoluo and Qilian mountain areas, where they were highest in summer and autumn and could reach 60~70 g·m-2. Cloud liquid water content and cloud ice water content increased firstly and then decreased with increasing altitude. Cloud liquid water content was concentrated at a height of 4 to 6 km, and cloud ice water content was concentrated at a height of 7 to 8 km. The altitude with the maximum cloud ice water content was higher than that with the maximum cloud liquid water content. In summer and autumn, the amplitudes of vertical variation of cloud liquid water content and cloud ice water content were biggest in Qinghai southern plateau, while they were smallest in Qaidam Basin. Cloud liquid water content and cloud ice water content in most parts of Qinghai increased from 2009 to 2018 and the increasing trend in autumn was most obvious. Cloud liquid water content and cloud ice water content was highest in September and lowest in January. The differences in monthly variations of cloud liquid water content and cloud ice water content in Qaidam Basin were smallest. The difference in monthly variations of cloud liquid water content in eastern agricultural region was biggest, while the difference in monthly variations of cloud ice water content in Qinghai southern plateau was biggest.
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    Analysis of Spatio-temporal Distribution Characteristics of Atmospheric Precipitable Resources over Fujian Based on Groundbased GPS Data
    PAN Weihua, YU Yongjiang, LUO Yanyan, ZHANG Linlin, YANG Zhiyong
    Journal of Arid Meteorology    2021, 39 (4): 577-584.  
    Abstract76)      PDF (4584KB)(159)       Save
    Atmospheric precipitable water vapor (PWV) is an important factor affecting rainfall. Based on ground-based GPSretrieved PWV data, ground meteorological observations, sounding data and ERAInterim reanalysis data from 2010 to 2019, the seasonal, monthly and diurnal variation characteristics of water vapor resources over Fujian were analyzed. Moreover, the spatial and temporal characteristics of PWV were assessed by using the empirical orthogonal function (EOF), MannKendall test and the sliding t test. The results show that the accuracy of the groundbased PWV was higher compared with ERAInterim reanalysis data. The water vapor resource over Fujian was largest in summer, followed by spring, autumn and winter. The monthly distribution of PWV presented an inverted Ushaped, and the diurnal variation of PWV changed significantly on sunny day and rainy day. The PWV of the eastern coastal areas was generally higher than that of the western mountainous areas, but the precipitation conversion rate of PWVthere was lower than that of the inland mountainous areas. The first mode of EOF decomposition of PWV presented the main characteristics with a variance contribution rate of 80.06%. The eigenvalues were positive in the whole region, which indicated that the spatial change of PWV had good consistency. The oscillation intensity of PWVstrengthened from northwest and southwest to the east, and the corresponding time curve characterized the significant seasonal changes of PWV. The mutation test of MannKendall and the sliding t test showed that the water vapor resources over Fujian had not undergone abrupt change in the past 10 years.
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    Analysis of Tourism Climate Comfort in Fanjing Mountain of Guizhou
    NIE Yun, ZHOU Jixian, YANG Qun, HU Ping, CHEN Chao, XU Dahong
    Journal of Arid Meteorology    2021, 39 (4): 585-592.  
    Abstract110)      PDF (1201KB)(151)       Save
    Based on daily temperature, precipitation, wind speed and relative humidity data in Fanjing Mountain from 2011 to 2019, the main climatic factors affecting tourism activities were analyzed. The forecast models of tourism climate comfort index and tourism meteorological index were established according to the reality of tourism. The results are as follows: (1) Fanjing Mountain had the climate characteristics of “suitable temperature, abundant precipitation, rain and heat in the same period, high air humidity, average wind of breeze”. The average temperature, precipitation, wind speed and relative humidity in recent 9 years were 8.4 ℃, 2073.7 mm, 3.8 m·s-1 and 91%, respectively. (2) In recent 9 years, the average days with comfortable and above feeling were 206.9 d in Fanjing Mountain, in which the more comfortable period was from June to August, the comfortable period was from April to May and September to October, the less comfortable period was in March and November, the uncomfortable period was from December to February of the following year. (3) The forecast model of tourism meteorological index in Fanjing Mountain included four factors such as comfort, precipitation, cloud cover and severe weather, which took the comprehensive consideration of tourism safety, comfort and appreciation, and it was easy to calculate and reasonable. It was more suitable for the weather forecast and service of mountain tourism.
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    Relationship Between New Particle Formation Events and PM 2.5 Pollution in Xi’an
    ZHAO Kuifeng, PENG Yan
    Journal of Arid Meteorology    2021, 39 (4): 593-602.  
    Abstract93)      PDF (7130KB)(132)       Save
    Based on the particle size distribution data measured by scanning mobility particle sizer model 3034 (SMPS-3034) from the field experiment station of aerosol and cloud microphysics for Qinling moutains, China Meteorological Administration during November 1-30 of 2017, the statistics characteristics of nine new particle formation (NPF) events were analyzed in Xi’an and the relationship between NPF and PM2.5 pollution was also discussed combining with three PM2.5 pollution cases. The results are as follows: (1) The NPF events started at noon or in the afternoon. The average value of growth rate of the mode particle diameter after NPF and net maximum increase in nucleation mode particles number concentration (NMINP) was 5.1±1.8 nm·h-1 and  0.63×104 cm-3, respectively. The NPF events contributed not only to the increase of nucleation mode particles number concentration, but also to the increase of Aitken mode and accumulation mode particles number concentrations. The 67 percent of the NPF events had a continuous growth in particle size, three of them had significant increasing in the mode particle diameter, the maximum value of which could reach to 175 nm. (2) There was an obvious increase of PM2.5 mass concentration with the growth of the mode particle diameter of the particles after NPF events. (3) The increase of PM2.5 mass concentration was positively correlated with the increase of mode particle diameter of the particles, the number concentrations of accumulation mode particles and the condensation sink during three processes from the NPF events to the PM2.5 pollution. When the mode particle diameter of the particles increased to 100-120 nm, the number concentration of accumulation mode particles continued higher than that of other two modes, the PM2.5 mass concentration was higher than 75 μg·m-3, and the PM2.5 pollution occurred.
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    Aircraft Measurements of Distribution of Aerosol over Golmud in Qinghai Province
    Journal of Arid Meteorology    2021, 39 (4): 603-609.  
    Abstract88)      PDF (4408KB)(201)       Save
    Based on observed aerosol data detected by the airborne DMT instruments in 2011 and 2013 in Golmud, the distribution characteristic of aerosol number concentration and the number spectrum were analyzed. The results show that it  was mainly affected by local aerosol in the lower layer, while it was mainly affected by longrange transport aerosol in the upper layer. The aerosol number concentration decreased with increasing altitude, and it was less than 500 cm-3 in each layer. The effective particle size increased firstly and then decreased with increasing altitude, the maximum value of effective particle size appeared at a height of 3500 to 5000 m, the aerosol number spectrum presented multipeak distribution. The lognormal fitting was used to fit the number spectrum of aerosol in three modes, the results showed that aerosol number spectrum width of the second mode (0.2-1 μm) was widest, followed by the third mode (1-3 μm), the first mode (0.1-0.2 μm) was narrowest. The aerosol number spectrums of the same mode in Golmud, Beijing and Tianjin were compared and found that the aerosol number spectrum width was widest in Tianjin and narrowest in Golmud in the first mode, and widest in Golmud and narrowest in Beijing in the second mode. The mean diameter of aerosol particles in the first mode and the second mode was largest in Beijing and smallest in Golmud.


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    Analysis of Cause and Evolution Characteristics of a Continuous Severe Fog and Haze Episode in Sichuan Basin
    QING Qingtao, LIU Jia, LI Xiaolan, LUO Yu, GUO Haiyan, GAN Weiwei, SUN Yu
    Journal of Arid Meteorology    2021, 39 (4): 610-619.  
    Abstract103)      PDF (3872KB)(154)       Save
    The typical fog and haze episode in the Sichuan basin from December 16, 2014 to January 27, 2015 was selected according to the method of determination of fog and haze days at a single station and the regional fog and haze process. Based on air quality index (AQI), mass concentration of pollutant, meteorological element characteristics and atmospheric circulation, the characteristics and mechanism of the generation, evolution and transformation of this continuous fog and haze weather were studied. The results are as follows: (1) The fog and  haze process was characterized by strong intensity, long duration and wide range. (2) Both mass concentration of pollutant and AQI were highly consistent with the fog and haze weather process, and the main pollutant in this fog and haze process was PM2.5, followed by PM10. (3) It can be seen from the process of formation, evolution and transition of a longlasting severe fog and haze episode that there were stages of pollutant accumulation with different intensities, reaching the peak value and rapidly weakening. Therefore, the intensity of fog and haze weather process was closely related to weather situation and vertical structure of boundary layer. The average temperature was 1.24 ℃ higher than the normal years, the rainfall was 34.77% lower than the same period, relative humidity was 2.67% lower than the same period, sunshine hours was 10.33 hours more than the same period, and wind speed was close to or slight higher than that of the normal years. The stable atmospheric circulation feature provided favorable environmental field for fog and hazy weather and heavy air pollution. Strong temperature inversion layer, sinking motion in the boundary layer and convergence in weak wind fields on the ground prevented water and pollutants from diffusing to the upper air.
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    Analysis on Radar Climatic Characteristics of Convective Activities in and Around Hanzhong Areas in Shaanxi Province
    ZHI Shulin, XU Dongbei, PAN Hela, LI Diannan, BAO Huimeng, CHEN Juan
    Journal of Arid Meteorology    2021, 39 (4): 620-630.  
    Abstract91)      PDF (10351KB)(127)       Save
    Based on the radar data in Hanzhong from June to August during 2013-2017 and the convective zone on constant altitude plan position indicator by using discrimination method, the characteristics of convective activities were analyzed during the warm season in and around Hanzhong areas. The results show that the high frequency areas of convective activities were mainly located in the Daba mountains, the southeastern foothills of the Qinling mountains and the transitional zone of the eastern QinlingDaba mountains around Hanzhong city, the highest convective frequencies and the widest areas were in the Daba mountains, followed by the southeastern foot of the Qinling mountains and the transitional zone of the Qinling and Daba mountains, and convective frequency was least in the western part of the Hanzhong basin. The convective activity was most in July and least in June, and convective frequency and convective areas showed obvious diurnal variation. The locations of convective high frequencies areas were highly correlated with mountainous terrain features. The high convection frequencies areas in the Daba mountains nearly coincided with terrain heights, while the high value areas in the southeastern foothills of the Qinling mountains were located on mountain slopes. The convection extension height was mostly below 7 km, with the highest proportion at a height of 4 to 5 km. Based on the reanalysis data, it was found that the convective instability energy maintained a high value center in the eastern part of the Sichuan basin in July and August, which was very close to the Daba mountains in the north of it, and it may be one of the contributing factors to the persistence of the local high convective region.


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    Circulation Configuration of Synoptic System and Radar Echo Characteristics of Shorttime Heavy Rainfall in Xinjiang
    YANG Tao, YANG Lianmei, ZHANG Yunhui, ZHUANG Xiaocui, HUANG Yan
    Journal of Arid Meteorology    2021, 39 (4): 631-640.  
    Abstract100)      PDF (5514KB)(187)       Save
    Based on the hourly precipitation observation data of 105 national stations and 1240 regional stations and 8 Doppler weather radars data in Xinjiang from 2010 to 2018, from the perspective of operational forecasting, the definition of shortterm heavy precipitation process in Xinjiang was proposed and 468 shortterm heavy precipitation processes were selected, and circulation configuration of influence system and radar observation characteristics were analyzed. The results show that there were four kinds of influence systems including the central Asia trough (vortex), the west Siberian trough (vortex) and low level northwest jet stream. The convective storms resulting in shortterm heavy rainfall were combined enhancement type, train effect type and isolated convective cell type, and the combined enhancement type was 45.1%, isolated convective cell type was 34.8%, and the train effect type was 20.2%, respectively. The parameter thresholds of the maximum reflectivity factor intensity (Zmax), the maximum height of the strong echo (Dmax), the maximum height of the echo top (ET) and the maximum vertical accumulated liquid water content (VIL) observed by Doppler radar during shortterm heavy precipitation processes in southern Xinjiang were less than those in northern Xinjiang, and in Yili prefecture they were largest and in Aksu they were smallest. The shortterm heavy precipitation in Yili prefecture was dominated by low centroid echo, while in other regions it was dominated by low centroid and high centroid echo.



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    Comparison of Dynamic Characteristics of Two Short-time Heavy Precipitation Processes of Baroclinic-Frontogenesis in the Early Flood Period of Southeast Gansu
    XIAO Wei, FU Zhao, XU Lili, LIU Weicheng, DI Xiaohong, ZHENG Xin, YANG Xiumei
    Journal of Arid Meteorology    2021, 39 (4): 641-651.  
    Abstract78)      PDF (11617KB)(232)       Save
    Abstract: The two regional shorttime heavy precipitation processes occurred in southeastern Gansu on April 19-20, 2019 (hereinafter using abbreviation “4·19”) and on April 26-27, 2019 (hereinafter using abbreviation “4·26”). Based on the conventional meteorological observations and ERA5 reanalysis data, the dynamic characteristics of two processes were analyzed through the diagnosis of physical quantities including frontogenesis function, temperature advection and vertical wind shear. The results are as follows: (1) The two processes belonged to baroclinicfrontogenesis severe convection, in which cold advection existed in the upper air, cold and warm air converged in low level, and obvious cold fronts and cold shear lines existed on the ground. (2) Under the same significant baroclinic atmospheric conditions, the dynamic characteristics of the two processes were significantly different. “4·19” process presented the characteristics of frontal precipitation, in which the cold air was relatively deep, strong and cold advection in the middle and low layers drove the lowlevel frontogenesis, and convection occurred under the dynamic unstable conditions forced by uplift of the front. However, “4·26” process had obvious characteristics of convective precipitation, in which cold air was diffused in the lower and near ground layers, and convective activity occurred under the combined action of near ground layer frontogenesis and lowlevel jets, and it was dominated by thermal instability. (3) The frontogenesis functions on 700 hPa and 850 hPa could quantitatively describe the temporal and spatial distribution and evolution characteristics of affecting systems in the lowlevel and near ground layer. Since the near ground layer trigger system was difficult to define due to the influence of terrain, especially in “4·19” process the pathes of cold air in the lower layer and near ground layer were complicated, the frontogenesis function could be used as a physical quantity index for the near ground layer trigger system.


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    Comparison of Two Lidarbased Alerting Algorithms for Low-level Wind Shear
    ZHANG Kaijun, FU Longyan, LI Lanqian, SHAO Aimei
    Journal of Arid Meteorology    2021, 39 (4): 652-661.  
    Abstract88)      PDF (4286KB)(308)       Save
     Based on the wind lidar observation data and 12 wind shear events reported by pilots at Lanzhou Zhongchuan airport from July to November 2020, the performance and effectivity of two lidarbased lowlevel wind shear alerting algorithms were investigated. One algorithm is the regional divergence algorithm (RDA), and another is the combinational algorithm of single ramp and double ramps detection. The IRIS algorithm, the default algorithm in the lidar, was used as a reference. The conclusions are as follows: (1) RDA and ramp detection algorithm had better ability in alerting wind shear events under the convection weather or downward momentum weather conditions. However, they had a poor performance on identification of wind shear events under turbulent conditions. (2) Compared with ramp detection algorithm, RDA uses multiradial directions to reconstruct headwind profile, and consequently it can provide some temporal and spatial evolution information of radial velocities along the runway and its extension line, which is conducive to identification and alerting of wind shear events ahead of time. (3) The alerting results on 12 wind shear events indicated that RDA was superior to ramp detection algorithm and IRIS algorithm.
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    Evaluation of Detection Effect About FY4A Lightning Mapping Imager (LMI) in Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea Area
    ZOU Yaoren, WANG Yun, WANG Shuyi, ZHANG Yuanyuan, MENG Fanhui
    Journal of Arid Meteorology    2021, 39 (4): 662-669.  
    Abstract57)      PDF (6889KB)(129)       Save
    Based on the groundbased 3D lightning detection network (3D LDN) data in Dalian and Qingdao areas, the detection efficiency of FY-4A lightning mapping imager (LMI) in the Yellow sea and Bohai sea area was evaluated. It was found that from the four severe convective weather processes in Dalian area in 2019, most of the lightning pulses occurred within radar echoes intensity greater than 30 dBZ, and the corresponding cloud top height was about 9 km, the number of groups detected by FY4A LMI was fewer than that of the pulses presented by groundbased 3D LDN, the average ratio was 0.2, ranging from 0.15 to 0.26. From the five severe convective weather processes in Qingdao area in 2019, the number of groups detected by FY4A LMI was also fewer than that of the pulses presented by groundbased 3D LDN, the average ratio was 0.34, ranging from 0.27 to 0.4. Generally, the lightning pulses location detected by FY-4A LMI was consistent with the lightning pulses presented by groundbased 3D LDN in Qingdao area, which located in strong echo area. However, the detection efficiency of FY4A LMI in the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea area was lower.
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    Study and Application of Discriminant Criterion of Winter Precipitation Phase in Tianjin
    CHEN Hong, YU Wentao, XU Wei, YANG Xiaojun, SUN Jianyuan, CHEN Kaihua
    Journal of Arid Meteorology    2021, 39 (4): 670-677.  
    Abstract82)      PDF (3034KB)(173)       Save
     Based on conventional meteorological observation data in Tianjin and the ECWMF ERAInterim reanalysis data (0.125°×0.125°), the transformation processes of raintosleet and then sleettosnow were analyzed from October to next April during 2000-2015 in Tianjin. The humidity and geopotential thickness during the transformation process of precipitation phases were analyzed, and 9 factors, namely temperature on 850 hPa, 925 hPa,1000 hPa and surface, thickness from 1000 to 850 hPa and from 850 to 700 hPa, 0 ℃ layer height, -4 ℃ layer height and 925 hPa relative humidity, were identified, which had close relationship with transformation process of precipitation phases. Further, their corresponding threshold indexes for different precipitation phases were given. And through the analysis of 3 weather cases, the usability of the indicators had been further verified. The discriminant equation for precipitation phases was established by using the 9 factors, it was found that the backtesting discriminant accuracy for rain and snow was higher than 80%.

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    Effect Verification of Multimodel Area Rainfall Forecast in Dadu River Basin in Flood Season in 2019
    SONG Wenwen, GUO Jie, DAN Jia, XU Cheng, LONG Keji
    Journal of Arid Meteorology    2021, 39 (4): 678-686.  
    Abstract101)      PDF (2652KB)(168)       Save
     Based on observed data from meteorological stations, gridded data and forecast data of intelligent grid, SWCWARMS (southwest center WRF ADAS realtime modeling system) and ECMWF, inspection evaluation was performed for the area rainfall forecast effect from June to October in 2019 in the Dadu River basin by using mean absolute deviation, fuzzy grading, accuracy and threat score. The inspection results of mean absolute deviation, accuracy and fuzzy grading indicated that the forecast effect of intelligent grid forecast was overall superior to the others. With the rising level of precipitation, the threat score and false alarm rate decreased, the miss alarm rate increased, and the forecast ability reduced. The ECMWF model was better in forecast of light and middle rainfall, and the intelligent grid model was better in forecast of heavy rainfall and rainstorm. The rainfall levels of forecast results from three models were bigger than observed value for light and middle rainfall, and were smaller than observed value for heavy rainfall and rainstorm. The area rainfall forecast results for typical rainfall process from each model showed that the result of SWCWARMS model was bigger than observation, and the results of intelligent grid model and ECMWF model were bigger than observation for light and middle rainfall but smaller than observation for heavy rainfall.

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    Research on Snow Surface Temperature Forecast Modelover the Xiaohaituo Mountain Area, Beijing
    LI Chen, WU Jin, GUO Wenli, JIN Chenxi, QI Chen
    Journal of Arid Meteorology    2021, 39 (4): 687-696.  
    Abstract83)      PDF (5414KB)(186)       Save

    Abstract: Based on the hourly meteorological observations at Erhaituo station with high altitude and Changchonggou station with low altitude in the Xiaohaituo mountain area of Yanqing, Beijing from October 2019 to March 2020, the characteristics of snow surface temperature and its correlation with meteorological factors were analyzed. The forecast models of snow surface temperature of two stations were established and tested by using neural networks and stepwise regression methods. The results are as follows: (1) The hourly variation of snow surface temperature during snow cover period in the Xiaohaituo mountain area was obviously stronger than that of air temperature, air temperature and total solar radiation were positively correlated with snow surface temperature and were the main factors causing the change of snow surface temperature. (2) The performance of snow surface temperature forecast model based on neural network method was superior to the one based on stepwise regression method, the model forecast effect at low altitude station was better than that at high altitude station, and the model forecast effect in the daytime was better than that during nighttime. (3) The model established by distinguishing daytime and nighttime was more suitable for the low altitude station.


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    Comparison Study on Test and Correction of Temperature Forecasts of ECMWF, GRAPES_Meso and SCMOC in Shaanxi
    WANG Dan, DAI Changming, LOU Panxing, WANG Jianpeng
    Journal of Arid Meteorology    2021, 39 (4): 697-708.  
    Abstract105)      PDF (4515KB)(171)       Save
    Based on daily maximum and minimum temperature data of 99 national weather stations in Shaanxi, two methods of univariate linear regression and decaying average were used to correct the temperature forecasts of SCMOC (the data of the national meteorological center forecast), GRAPES_Meso (global/regional assimilation and prediction system) and ECMWF (European center for mediumrange weather forecasting). The result show that the prediction accuracy of daily minimum temperature was higher than that of daily maximum temperature for SCMOC, GRAPES_Meso and ECMWF. The accuracy of daily maximum and minimum temperature forecast of SCMOC was obviously highest among them, while that of GRAPES_Meso was lowest. The methods of univariate linear regression and decreasing average could significantly improve the accuracy of air temperature forecasts of GRAPES_Meso and ECMWF, but could not improve the accuracy of SCMOC. The accuracy of ECMWF’s daily maximum and minimum temperature forecast corrected from 2017 to 2019 was higher than that of SCMOC. The accuracy of GRAPES_Meso’s 24hour and 48hour daily maximum temperature prediction corrected in 2019 was higher than that of SCMOC, while the accuracy of daily minimum temperature prediction after correcting was still much lower than that of SCMOC. By comparison, the ability and stability of univariate linear regression method for rectifying air temperature forecast of numerical model were better than that of decreasing average method.

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    Analysis on Forecast Effect of Daily Maximum Power Load Variation in Shijiazhuang Based on Three Models
    WU Huiqin, YANG Linhan, ZHAGN Zhongjie
    Journal of Arid Meteorology    2021, 39 (4): 709-715.  
    Abstract76)      PDF (1467KB)(179)       Save
    Based on daily maximum power load in Shijiazhuang from 2017 to 2019 and meteorological data during the same period, the variation characteristic of daily maximum power load was analyzed. The correlation between variation of daily maximum power load and meteorological factors, air quality index (AQI) was also analyzed. The forecasting models of daily maximum power load variation in winter and summer were established by using stepwise regression, multiple linear regression and generalized additive model (GAM), the data of corresponding time in 2019 were taken as the independent test samples of forecasting effect. The results show that the daily maximum power load in Shijiazhuang had an obvious increasing trend from 2017 to 2019, and the correlation between variation of power load and factors had obvious seasonality. The factors which had a negative correlation with daily maximum power load variation in winter were positively correlated with daily maximum power load variation in summer, and vice versa. Among the three models, GAM model had the best prediction effect, and its forecast effect in summer was better than that in winter. In business application, GAM model with AQI could be selected in summer, and GAM model without AQI should be selected in winter.

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    Journal of Arid Meteorology    2021, 39 (3): 0-.  
    Abstract57)      PDF (999KB)(131)       Save
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    Journal of Arid Meteorology    2021, 39 (3): 0-.  
    Abstract19)      PDF (231KB)(108)       Save
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    Journal of Arid Meteorology    2021, 39 (3): 0-.  
    Abstract23)      PDF (139KB)(94)       Save
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    Characteristics of Spatial Temporal Variation of Dryness and Wetness from 1978 to 2017 in Southwestern China
    ZHOU Xiyin, LI Xiehui
    Journal of Arid Meteorology    2021, 39 (3): 357-365.  
    Abstract161)      PDF (2776KB)(259)       Save
     Based on SPEI of 91 meteorological stations with time scales of 1, 3, 6 and 12 months from 1978 to 2017 in southwestern China, the spatialtemporal variation characteristics of dryness and wetness were analyzed by means of ESMD, MK mutation test and spatial interpolation methods. The results are as follows: (1) In the past 40 years, in the southwestern region it presented a trend of aridification. The mode components decomposed by ESMD had interannual oscillation (2 a) and interdecadal oscillation (10 a) feature and the trend components showed a fluctuating decline. There was no recovery after 2010 and drought degree was gradually deepening. (2) The ESMD and MK mutation test were combined to obtain the dryness and wetness mutation time and it was in the early 2000s. (3) The drought intensity was negatively correlated with the wetness intensity, it was mainly drought in most regions. Extreme drought occurred in the northwest Sichuan and the central and eastern Guizhou, while the wet intensity in southern Sichuan was higher. (4) In terms of spatial distribution of seasonal average dryness and wetness intensity, extreme dryness and wetness appeared in spring, most of the areas were humid, and extreme drought occurred in some parts in summer. Drought occurred with different degrees in autumn and winter, and local humidity appeared in some areas.
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