%0 Journal Article %A ZHANG Chengjun1 %A 2 %A 3 %A JI Xiaoling1 %A 2 %A 3 %A MA Jingren1 %A 3 %A YANG Yang1 %A CHEN Di1 %T Verification of Numerical Forecast and Its Application
 Products in Weather Forecast in Ningxia %D 2017 %R 10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2017)-01-0148 %J Journal of Arid Meteorology %P 148-156 %V 35 %N 1 %X

For improving the prediction accuracy of meteorological elements in Ningxia, the 11 kinds of reference products had been verified, and some conclusions were found. In terms of temperature accuracy, the top accuracy rate of Ningxia’s MOS products and integrated products was higher than that of the Central Meteorological Observatory, especially for maximum temperature, and the accuracy of maximum temperature forecasted by the Central Meteorological Observatory ranked seventh to ninth only in all reference products. The best accuracy of Ningxia’s maximum temperature products was higher than that of forecasters’ after 48 hours and beyond, but the accuracy of forecasters’ minimum temperature was slightly higher than those of reference products. In terms of precipitation accuracy, the forecaster’s accuracy of shine (rain) for 24-168 hours and general precipitation for 24-72 hours was highest. The forecasted accuracy of shine (rain) from the Central Meteorological Observatory was far higher than those of other reference products. For short-term, the most optimal products for the general precipitation prediction were from WRF 9 km and the Central Meteorological Observatory, and the best products for moderate rain were EC interpolation and T639 interpolation. There was significant seasonal variation for the accuracy of each reference product, and the annual change ranged from 10% to 30%.

%U http://www.ghqx.org.cn/EN/10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2017)-01-0148