%0 Journal Article %A SHANG Kezheng %A KONG Debing %A WANG Shigong %A YE Wei %A ZHAO Wenjing %T
Probability Forecast Method of Thunderstorm in East Region of Northwest China Based on Stepwise Regression Analysis %D 2016 %R 10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2016)-01-0181 %J Journal of Arid Meteorology %P 181-187 %V 34 %N 1 %X

Based on the weather circumstances data of 60 meteorological sites in east region of Northwest China during 2008-2013 and convective parameters calculated from NCEP/NCAR data, the thunderstorm weather circumfluence types were classified, the samples that did not conform to the thunderstorm weather types were eliminated firstly, then the event probability regression method was used to set up the April-October 24 h thunderstorm potential forecast formulas, and on this basis, the thunderstorms occurring in 2013 were forecasted. The results are as follows: (1) Thunderstorms mostly occurred in the northeast slope of the Qingzang Plateau and rarely occurred in the Gobi Desert in the north and the Central Shaanxi Plain in the east, and the annual average thunderstorm days were five to ten days in 45% sites of all sites in east region of Northwest China. (2) In the thunderstorm weather circumfluence classification processes, a lot of samples in which thunderstorms did not happen were successfully reduced in order to improve forecast precision. (3) The meteorological convective parameters calculated from NCEP/NCAR data were highly related to the occurrence of thunderstorms and had a larger variance contribution to the thunderstorm potential formulas. (4) The average TS score for 60 sites during 2008-2012 was 24.2%, and the average TS score for 60 sites in 2013 was 23.3%. The thunderstorm potential formulas had better forecast effect on sites where more thunderstorms happened. The forecast result is reasonable and can provide reference for the study of thunderstorm in east region of Northwest China.

%U http://www.ghqx.org.cn/EN/10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2016)-01-0181