%0 Journal Article %A YU Huizhen %A MA Yan %A HAN Xuqing %A SHI Xiaomeng %T Forecast and diagnosis analysis of the turning of Typhoon Yagi track %D 2022 %R 10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2022)-06-1014 %J Journal of Arid Meteorology %P 1014-1023 %V 40 %N 6 %X

In the early morning of 14 August 2018, Typhoon Yagi turned northeastward and moved from northern Anhui to Shandong, and the errors in operational model forecasting of the typhoon track turning were large. The turning of Typhoon Yagi track is forecasted and diagnosed based on the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble forecasts and the fifth generation ECMWF atmospheric reanalysis (ERA5) data. The results show that the turning of typhoon track was attributed to the combination of the large-scale steering flow and the typhoon structure. The forecasted western Pacific subtropical high was located to the west of that in the observation. As a result, most of the ECMWF ensemble members failed to predict the turning of Typhoon Yagi track. In the earlier forecast, the characteristic that the forecasted western Pacific subtropical high was located to west of the observation was 30 h ahead of the turning of the typhoon track. The forecast of the typhoon track can be corrected by the western Pacific subtropical high location correction. Before the typhoon turned, the distribution of the large values regions of the vertically averaged atmospheric energy and the divergence at 200 hPa was consistent with the turning path of typhoon, which has significant meaning for the forecast of typhoon turning. The axis direction of the large center of the vertically averaged atmospheric energy and the strong warming center at 300 hPa changed about 18 h ahead of the typhoon turning, which has significant meaning for the forecast of typhoon turning time. Scale analysis shows that the storm-scale component of the variables mentioned above has significant meaning for the forecast of typhoon turning.

%U http://www.ghqx.org.cn/EN/10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2022)-06-1014