%0 Journal Article %A REN Xuwei %A CHEN Xiaoyan %A CAI Dihua %A LI Lanqian %A SHAO Aimei %T Evaluation of Precipitation Forecast Based on GRAPES_Meso Model and Its Cloud Analysis System in Northwest China %D 2021 %R 10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2021)-02-0333 %J Journal of Arid Meteorology %P 333-344 %V 39 %N 2 %X The precipitation forecast performance of GRAPES_Meso model with 3 km spatial resolution and its cloud analysis system was investigated and compared through numerical experiments for 13 heavy rainfall cases in summer and batch forecast in July 2018 in Northwest China. The results are as follows: (1) GRAPES_Meso model with 3 km spatial resolution had a good forecasting skill and stable performance for precipitation forecast in Northwest China, it could provide favourable outputs for short-term forecasting and nowcasting business. The average threat score of light rain and above for 13 heavy rainfall cases was between 0.5 and 0.6, while the threat score of batch experiments in July was slightly worse than that of 13 heavy rainfall cases. (2) By introducing observed data of radar reflectivity, satellite TBB and CTA, the cloud analysis system could reasonably adjust cloud water, rain water and other hydrometeor content, consequently reduce spin-up time in the mesoscale model and improve the forecast ability of precipitation with different magnitudes. However, the forecast results of cyclic assimilations in cloud analysis system weren’t stable. (3) The predicted coverage of radar echo by GRAESP_Meso model and cloud analysis system was consistent with observations, while the intensity of composite reflectivity was higher than the observations. %U http://www.ghqx.org.cn/EN/10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2021)-02-0333